Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Putting the 'Fun' in 'Logistic FUNctions!'



So, this weekend I was playing around with R to graph some data sets and get the variables that go into the formula for doing logistic modeling.  While trying to figure out some f(t) or t-values given the inputs, I was annoyed at calculating the results by hand, even if I was able to get the variables from R.  It's pretty normal math for this kind of work, and it's good to know how to do it manually step-by-step, but eventually the fun wore off, and I just wanted to get it done.

Anyhow, I built a "Logistic Function Solver" aka calculator in Excel, and figured I would share it on the off-chance anyone else needs such a thing and doesn't feel like taking the time to build one.  It's already been useful at work.

Here it is

Anyhow, you should be able to access the file on Google Drive with that link, and then make a copy for yourself.  Let me know in the comments if this doesn't work for you.

Basically, cells with the light yellow background and green text are ones in which you should enter your values, and then your desired output will be in the green background with red text.  (Leave the other cells alone, they have formulas)

Enjoy!

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Marketing & Data for New Businesses, Pt. 2: SEO

I'm going to start with the rub.

As I have mentioned before, the death of traditional search has been widely heralded, and patently disproved. It is a trendy thing to write about, but has little place in today's business world, because it's a prediction that has created many fools. If you were a weather forecaster, and just showed up each day and said "It's going to rain today," you would eventually be correct, but couldn't brag too much if those showers followed three weeks of sunshine. One day, traditional search will indeed see a serious decline in relevance, but that day is not yet come.

As such, small/new businesses have to continue to care about search, and SEO in particular. Why in particular? Primarily because it is "free," but also because it can scale better than any other channel, as organic search almost automatically encompasses your entire target audience.
A search for "Elizabeth Warren" probably wanted a result about this one

So where's the rub? SEO, boon and lifeblood that it is, can be extremely difficult for new companies. In large part, this is because the number one concern of the search engines* (here I will cease deliberately referring to them collectively, and start just using "Google" or "the engines" interchangeably, because, let's face it, Google still calls all of the shots in most countries) is authority. Authority is a somewhat (deliberately) vague term that describes the likelihood that a particular result is the most common intended target of a query.

Example: If someone searches for "Elizabeth Warren," Google is going to assume that they are looking for the official website of the politician (or recent news results, or her Wikipedia page), and not a PDF of the marriage announcement of a woman with the same name from a 1978 edition of the Albuquerque Journal.

Ultimately, authority (and SEO) is about probability. The more specific the query, the easier it is for the search engine, but most users start with something fairly broad, hoping that the engine will guess their intent, and show them a set of results that contains the desired website. The problem is that for a new business, unless you are filling a niche that no one else has ever tried to fill, it's very unlikely that you will have a great deal of authority for any search other than your brand name.

It takes time to build authority, which looks at historical data, including the clicks of users following a particular query (which is one of the few times that a confirmation bias is actually an appropriate thing). However, this isn't to say that a new business should not care about SEO, just that it is a more difficult path early on.

So what can you do?  Here are a few recommendations:
  • Authority is based on a lot of legacy clout. Macy's has been Macy's forever. So try to compete most strenuously in areas that are newer, for example:
    • social signals are only gaining relevance in SEO, so make sure that your brand is extremely active on all of the social platforms, especially Google+
    • also, make sure that for each platform, you create the right type of account, that best represents your business
    • secure your site - Google has recently said that they will give slight preference to sites that are operating on HTTPS instead of HTTP; this is a pain to overhaul for sprawling legacy sites, but should be easy if you are new 

  • Get it right from the start. Many companies have websites for years before they start worrying about SEO. Don't wait until you are big enough to pay a consultant to follow best practices:
    • audit your pages up front - proper metadata and linking from day one
    • make sure that you have enough content (500-1000+ words) on your important pages, even if some text is hidden to the viewer (but not to crawlers)
    • authorize yourself as the owner of your site on Google and Bing webmaster tools, because they will be the respective canaries in your coal mine

  • Publish or perish
    •  Content and SEO will only be more inextricably linked, so get writing! Provide value and you will get traffic, which will in turn get you authority
    • if you are going to blog or produce other types of content, keep it on your primary domain; Wordpress may be easier, but you are just dividing your 'authority points'
    • if your content/blog does live offsite, make sure to cross-link it to the most relevant page on your main site, with appropriate anchor text

  • Measure what you can
    • On a basic level, use Analytics (or whatever you have) to keep an eye on the number of visits, and new visits (to separate people who just don't use bookmarks or type in the nav bar), from organic search
    • the move to a 'not provided' world from a keyword standpoint in Google Analytics hurt, but you can see what searched terms brought organic traffic to your site in webmaster tools, so identify those queries that should be central to your business and pull that data monthly to identify trends
    • Webmaster tools will also provide you with information about your rankings for various keywords, which is important in tandem with your volume of traffic from each term; use a combination to identify shifts in search behavior and effectiveness of on-page SEO

That should be enough to keep any new SEO busy for a while! It looks daunting, but the key is to just try and do the right things, generally. The engines ultimately want what is best for the consumer, and will reward sites that provide real value in an authentic manner. Keep SEO in mind with everything that you do, even if it is never the top priority, and you won't have to go back and clean it all up after the fact.

For more tips for small/new businesses, check out part one of the series.  Feel free to post questions in the comments.